An insight into climate change and the     response of populations. (2007/8)   Author; M.Wiseman Bsc. Hons. (Geosciences) Email: mike@earthconcern.com   Introduction To begin to understand circumstances affecting the climate of our planet we must first understand the function of our position in time and space within the universe. Awareness of the inevitability of the evolution of suns and planets and the cycles of this evolution must be our first priority, and then we can possibly begin to evaluate where we are as a species within those parameters. Once we begin to realise that influences beyond our control are guiding us, perhaps then we will be able to come to terms with present day problems that are being influenced by climate change. The following will try to bring into focus the situation that although a great deal of the problems we now face, through our changing global climate, has been exacerbated by Anthropogenic actions and our preoccupation with fossil fuels. The climate will change dramatically anyway and always has throughout the evolution of our planet. Because we ‘homo sapiens’ desire a more leisurely existence, all we want is ‘more for less’; we have created a situation whereby our very existence is under threat. The following will attempt to demonstrate perhaps we can, if the will is there, alleviate some of the problems facing us in the future. Our present living standards and our demands on this planet are not sustainable; we cannot continue to abuse the world we live in, because if we do ‘Nature’ will bite back. Planet history The Universe, Galaxies, Suns and their planets are governed by rules for their very existence, Suns spiral round inside Galaxies, planets orbit Suns and in turn Moons (satellites) orbit Planets. All these bodies are finite and their life span is governed by the rules of physics and chemistry, as has been seen and calculated through observations from our planet and recently from near space (Hubble Telescope). Because of these rules the lifespan of our sun, and therefore our planet, can be calculated and the results indicate our sun is approximately half way through its life. It has already expanded and is hotter now than its original temperature when formed 4.5 billion years ago. Our planet at the moment is fortunate. We are positioned in an area of the solar system called the ‘habitable zone’, where the temperature and circumstance of chemistry allows us to exist. A few hundred thousand kilometres away from, or toward our sun and liquid water would disappear also carbon based life forms would not be able to exist. Over thousands of years our orientation to the sun changes. This occurs in cycles called ‘Milankovitch cycles’ after the Serbian mathematician who died in 1958. His work enabled scientists to look into the past and clearly see the relationship between this orbital and angular orientation to the sun and our planets climate. We can see from this work that, as in all things in the universe, our future climate is controlled by forces so vast we can hardly comprehend them. We are able to correlate  our planet is now entering an interglacial stage and our climate will slowly change   and become warmer. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions is not just a smooth change in temperature; there are many peaks and troughs from year to year or even decade to decade. This presents a ‘saw tooth’ graph over periods of thousands of years. What is most important is the trend The planet has been immerging from a glacial period for over 10.000 yrs. Ice covered the British Isles as far south as Brecon and London, and was 2km thick in places, this demonstrates the time factors involved when dealing with climate change. The main criteria for all evolution, including the planet and its capabilities for adjusting to differing conditions, is time, not our everyday understanding of time spans, but understanding time in the context of thousands and millions of years. Interglacial warming is still progressing, but once again we must understand the time scales of natural events on our planet. It takes a long time in human terms for changes to evolve, but in the lifecycle of the planet it is a very short period; it also takes these lengths of time for the planet to adjust and return to a state of balance. After catastrophic events in the past history of the planet, such as mass extinctions, (five during known history), millions of years evolved before the planet once again rejuvenated and maintained a balance. The data points to a chain of events that cannot be tampered with nor can the processes be quickened, yet we as a species have not only interfered with the time cycles of balance on the planet, but we expect to reverse damage caused to our atmosphere in decades, instead of millennia. There have been large fluctuations of temperature during the planets history when  it moved between an ice age and a greenhouse, approximately 251 million years ago at the end of the Permian epoch, the temperature of the planet was raised dramatically. Massive eruptions of basalt lava poured trillions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, in turn the climate of the planet changed as the temperature was raised by the blanket effect of greenhouse gases. Eventually the temperature of the oceans reached a critical point and the methane substrate locked into the seabed of coastal waters melted, causing a catastrophic  release of  methane into the atmosphere (methane is twenty times more powerful than carbon  dioxide). The planet plunged into a catastrophic positive feedback scenario, which destroyed 98% of  species; this was global warming on a massive scale, started by the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over a relative short space of time, the atmosphere warmed too quickly, the planet could not adjust and maintain a balance, therefore starting a chain of events with no short term answer. The average temperature of the planet has only to warm by as little as 5 degrees centigrade to emerge from an ice age. Up to the beginning of the industrial revolution this increase had taken over 10,000yrs. but in the last 200yrs. the temperature has increased by a further degree and it is predicted a further three degrees of warming could occur by 2050. Using oxygen isotope analysis from Permian rocks, geologists have reached a conclusion that the temperature increase, which resulted in the last mass extinction at the end of the Permian, was approximately six degrees centigrade. What they don’t know is where is the ‘tipping point’ that results in a catastrophic runaway greenhouse Data shows the oceans are getting warmer but at what point the methane release will occur is not known, scientists do know however, the temperature methane cathrates start to melt. They are monitoring the sea temperatures closely in the coastal waters where it is concentrated. There are trillions of tonnes of methane locked away in these cathrates.   Atmospheric balance and fossil fuels Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for over 100yrs. it is ‘drawn down’ by areas called ‘carbon sinks’, examples are; oceans, plants and trees, rivers, rocks and these sinks maintain the planets balance. Human activities are removing the capacity of  the sinks to operate; forests are being logged at an alarming rate, rivers are diverted and used for irrigation, which in turn results in salination of the soil, rocks are mined and crushed releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. Scientific data from North Atlantic surveys during autumn 2007 have found the capacity of the North Atlantic to absorb carbon dioxide has halved; the oceans are so acidic that a condition known as ‘carbon saturation’ is occurring. The progression from this condition is to an anoxic state (oxygen depletion), where nothing as we know it can live, a state that humans will not be able to reverse unless all carbon dioxide emissions were halted. The next largest carbon sink are the rainforests; an area the size of the Isle of Wight is being cut down each day. Most of the timber is for building world wide, when the forests are lost the area will not recover for decades, worst of all, the plants and creatures that live in the rainforests are lost forever, in these areas alone, 200 species a day are becoming extinct. It is not just a carbon sink that is lost, billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide are released when the trees are cut down and the plant detritus on the forest floor is allowed to decompose to the atmosphere, these processes release more carbon and methane, again increasing the greenhouse effect. The rate of discovering new oil has diminished over the last decade. In 2005 the consumption of oil, planet wide, was a billion barrels every 11.5 days, this meant a negative production of approximately 4% (International Energy Outlook 2007), Because of the human species reliance on oil, whole economies could collapse when the oil resources reach dangerously low levels. A plateau known as ‘peak oil’ was reached at the beginning of 2007; four times more oil was being used than was newly discovered. This situation is obviously unsustainable and has already led to conflict exacerbated by developing countries relying on, and therefore demanding a greater use of oil. Unless vast oil fields are found soon it will be to late to stop a decline into confrontations across borders and between countries. One country that is economically dependant on oil is Alaska. The trans-Alaskan oil pipeline runs from the north to the south coasts of Alaska and a quarter of the indigenous peoples are reliant on the oil companies for their very existence, and yet climate change and global warming, of which fossil fuels are a catalyst, are causing them massive problems. Their houses are built on Permafrost and this is melting at an alarming rate, causing very dramatic results as the houses sink into the melting soil.  Coal and oil burning and the reliance of industry in Russia on coal and oil to fuel their power stations are also adding to climate change problems. Here also the same scenario is occurring with their houses sinking due to melting permafrost in the north of Russia, Siberian buildings are crumbling once again they are sinking through melting ground. We tend to think the onset of global warming will have a greater effect on the lower latitude countries, but as can be seen from the data, higher latitude countries are being affected to a considerable extent. China is relying more and more on fossil fuels for their power. Their aim is to bring on stream a new coal fired power station every two and half weeks until they have 600 new stations. They are also buying foreign oil companies as their thirst for motorcars and transport of all types is surging ahead, also the tonnage of  mined mineral resources for the building trade is expanding exponentially. A great deal of the climate change related problems China has, is attributed to global warming, exacerbated by the use of fossil fuels. China is overall becoming warmer and dryer; dust storms on a massive scale are an everyday occurrence. The Gobi desert is advancing toward Beijing and is now only 70km from the city’s western suburbs. Water; too much or too little? With the advent of a warming planet the inevitability of sea level rise is without question; how much will sea level rise? This is open to debate, but the scientific knowledge and accompanying data of the amount of water locked into the Arctic and Antarctic, predicts a sea level rise of 7mts if the Arctic melts and a rise of 21mts if both the Antarctic and Arctic land ice melt. Because of climate change and the accompanying glacial and interglacial periods in the planets history, we can see from evidence massive sea level changes have occurred. As sea levels change sedimentary deposits provide a visual record that is used to determine what extent the sea levels have changed over millennia. In Great Britain the white cliffs of Dover stand as a testament to the changing environment of  thousands of years ago, they are made up of trillions of  sea creatures, which diedand sank to the bottom of the ocean . Recent surveys of the Arctic ice sheet (Swansea University’s Expedition) have discovered alarming changes to the condition and magnitude of the ice. Vast lakes have appeared where once there was just ice, and the ice is melting up to five times faster than was predicted three years ago. One of the effects of melting is causing great concern, namely the opening of massive fissures in the ice into which the newly formed lakes are emptying, when reaching the bed rock this warmer water is melting the base of the ice sheet thereby lubricating the whole sheet and allowing faster movement toward the sea, subsequently melting faster as it journeys seaward. Fast melting is also occurring in the Antarctic, In the year 2000, during the space of a month, an area the size of Belgium (Larson’B’ ice shelf) broke up and disintegrated into small ice-burgs. Recent surveys have shown the same rates of ice melting in the Antarctic as the Arctic, other ice shelves both in the Arctic and Antarctic are in imminent danger of breaking up and disintegrating. Pacific islands such as Tuvalu, and low lying coastal areas such as Bangladesh are being engulfed and will be inundated within the next ten years because of rising sea levels. In the northern hemisphere, parts of the British Isles, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the north and south coasts of the Mediterranean as well as coastal regions world wide will experience encroachment by rising sea levels, most of the residents of low lying areas will have to relocate causing massive immigration problems. Populations that live in coastal regions and flood plains will experience flooding of increased regularity and severity as rivers rise due to greater precipitation and rising sea levels. The British Isles experienced some of the worst floods in living memory during the summer 2007. Extremely heavy precipitation in the midlands caused rivers to burst their banks, flood prevention changes exacerbated the situation, the banks of the rivers upstream had been raised to stop flooding on new developments, all this achieved was to push the problem further downstream. Heavy precipitation occurs when the more temperate areas warm, and evaporation is increased (what goes up must come down), as climate change evolves global warming will change the precipitation patterns worldwide, and ev There are over 300 million people in danger because of lack of fresh water and rising sea levels. Today 15 major rivers run dry before they reach the sea for periods of months every year, including the Yangtze and the Nile; global warming means more water is needed for irrigation; rivers are being dammed so water can be diverted into irrigations channels. The more forced irrigation is used to grow crops the periods between irrigation procedures lengthen because of water shortage, the ground dries out and moisture is drawn up to the surface by capillary action. This causes salination as the salts in the water are left behind and reconstituted, with the result that more water has then to be used to wash away the salts before crops can be re-sown. Conflicts are arising as countries along the route of the rivers are damning and diverting the water for their own use, therefore depleting the water flow to the countries downriver. They haven’t enough water for personal use or irrigation; cross border conflicts are the result of this shortage, it has been predicted the next great wars will be fought over water as supplies run out. Populations Population migration from rural areas to cities mean demands for fresh water are becoming greater; people expect clean water on tap for their every day existence. The largest migration in human history is in China as people move from rural areas to the cities, also by 2030, 80% of the population of Africa will live in cities, as people are driven to move because lack of work drives them to seek a future of supposed prosperity. There isn’t the infrastructure in place to accommodate this influx; fresh water, sanitation, jobs are not there, this leads to the advent of shantytowns. Mass migration to cities has covered thousands of square miles world wide with these shantytowns, there is an estimated 1 billion people living without sanitation or safe fresh water, young people are trapped in a lawless and empty future, these places are breeding grounds for terrorism and lawlessness because the young have no prospects to improve their living standards, and no future to look forward to. The planet can sustain 2 billion people to a standard developed countries expect, at the beginning of this century there were 6 billion people occupying our planet, while the extrapolated figure for the year 2050 is 8.9 billion. Some schools of thought say, as we approach this figure, starvation, pestilence and disease will eventually plummet the planet into a 6th mass extinction of 90% of the all species, what we must not forget is, we (Homo Sapiens) are now one of those species. Conclusion  There is inevitability in the fact the planet is warming and will continue to do so whatever we do about carbon dioxide emissions These facts are proven by history and our knowledge of the laws of the universe (Milankovitch cycles). What has changed this natural event in our evolution by speeding it up, are the activities of Homo sapiens over the last 200 plus years by burning vast amounts of fossil fuels and pouring a massive amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We have given ‘nature’ an impossible task, which is to try and remove the results of our actions at a speed not possible in the natural world. Yet ‘nature’ is the only answer to slowing down climate change and perhaps easing the greenhouse effect of these emissions by the natural process of carbon sinks, and at the same time we must stop pouring tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The planet changes over the millennia, continents move, massive forces create mountains and valleys, volcanoes erupt pouring greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and earthquakes alter the topography of the land. History shows our planet has the capabilities to deal with these events, but it has to be given time. The human species are demanding too much too quickly, the planet cannot do its job and maintain the balance. We have used 2/3rds of the natural resources of the planet and yet developing countries demand more, and who is to say they shouldn’t? The resources left will diminish at an alarming rate. Oil and natural gas have reached ‘peak production’ and are finite, we cannot rely on this form of energy for much longer, and yet we will not have the natural resources to continue to build sustainable energy sources. Through our actions and our demand for more we are destroying other species on a massive scale. We tend to forget we rely on these creatures to maintain the food chain, without them we cannot grow the crops to feed ourselves, so by destroying them we are destroying ourselves. By the year 1900 it had taken 5 million years to achieve a world population of 2 billion, (coincidentally the balance figure for human sustainability). It has taken only 100 years more to rise to 6 billion and it will take only 50 years more to rise to 9 billion. This situation is not sustainable but perhaps natural catastrophic events will stop us reaching this figure. Global warming means higher sea levels and lack of fresh water. The movement of populations (migration) from these affected areas to a better environment, will cause cross-country stresses of enormous proportions, bringing conflicts of an unprecedented magnitude. We will not have enough cultivated land available to avert starvation of billions of people. Education has to be a priority; our lifestyles will have to change. We can no longer drum our heels on the ground and scream ‘I want, because he/she has’. It is the responsibly of all people to change and live with ‘nature’ instead of expecting ‘nature’ to change for us. How we will get 6 billion people to agree is a challenge. First governments must agree, and then an ethos of sustainable survival must be undertaken. Local governments and corporations large and small have a responsibility to their work people and customers, all corporate plans should, as a priority, include an ethos of making sure their people and customers are helped to understand the ramifications of not making a better and more sustainable future, children cannot be left a legacy of our complacency and our rush to get more for less. Controlling carbon dioxide emissions is a focal point, but awareness and acceptance of unavoidable climate change is imperative if we are to survive the future.  Cross border conflicts are inevitable as the planets fast rising population compete for space and resources, our actions now will help control the future well being of the population and therefore the planet. The events in the midlands brought the residents who were affected together to demonstrate, and through peaceful means, they brought to the attention of the local governments and developers, that information and awareness are paramount if there is any evidence for future possible problems. All the evidence points to a climate change not experienced in our, Homo sapiens, evolution, science can now inform and advise with the knowledge and data they have. It is up to governments, both national and local, also corporations to use that knowledge and help their people understand the pitfalls of some of their future actions, and their reasoning behind the actions they take, an informed public can alleviate future animosities as occurred in the midlands. A graffiti artist once wrote on a wall ‘Time is the medium that stops everything happening at once’. We need to give the planet time to adjust, as we are fast approaching the ‘tipping point’.                                          References International energy outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html Wikipedia http://www.wikipedia.org/  High Tide: Mark Lynas 2005. (Published by Harper Perennial ISBN 0007139403) Climate Change: Robert Henson 2006. (Published by Penguin Books ISBN 10 1-84353-711-7) ents such as the midlands will occur more regularly. South America, India and Pakistan rely heavily on glaciers for fresh water, but they are melting at an alarming rate. Each time glaciologist’s revisit the glaciers they find more melting has taken place than was conservatively estimated on previous visits. in  some places glaciers are receding hundreds of meters each year, within ten years places like Peru in South America, and the southern states of India, will have no fresh water for over nine months of the year. When glacial ice isn’t replaced by fresh snowfall during the winter, the glaciers melt faster than ice can be replaced. Lack of precipitation exacerbated by faster melting due to rising temperatures is affecting the glaciers, which are receding four times faster than was predicted three years ago. They are receding at such a rate they will disappear altogether within ten years if temperatures continue to rise.